Population management in India

The frequently cited UN projection assumes Indian fertility will decline to below replacement by 2035 and remain at 1.8 births per woman in subsequent decades. As a result, India’s population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060 before declining to 1.5 billion by 2100’.

The causes of Population Explosion in India are known to be due to many factors, including those listed below-

1. Indifferent towards Family Planning, by government policy and the people resulting in a high Birth Rate.

2. Improved health care, and reduced infant mortality

3. Illiteracy and Unawareness, due to poor visibility of family planning

4. Child Marriage and Multi Marriage System.

5. Religious Superstitions and promotion of large families by certain ‘religious’ people

6. Poverty

7. Reduced Death Rate, reduced famines, reduced wars.

8. Hot Climate. One of the reasons of fast rising population in India is said to be its hot    climate.

There is a large urban rural divide in family size in India. Most urban middle class Indians have 2 or 3 children. Many have had just 1 child in my extended family.

The picture in the rural setting is quite different.

I asked children in the village how many children were in their nuclear family. Many said they have 3-4 siblings. I have seen a family where there are 5 sisters. Obviously, the parents have been trying to have a boy in the family. The young man in the village who got married in September last year already has a baby boy by October the following year. The chowkidar at the house in Dilli has 5 children in their early twenties, all waiting and wanting to get married, and have more children.  These children and their children will all want a job, a house, a motorcycle or a car, and the cycle will continue further.

One of the factors that determine your family size is the number of siblings you had in your family when you were growing up.

Clearly the message of ‘Hum do humare do’ has not been marketed or explained well to the villagers and the Muslims. How will the land sustain this growth in numbers? When these children start to want a car, a 1 crore flat in town, eat more meat and drink more alcohol, how will the land of India meet and sustain those expectations and aspirations?

The simple truth is it is not achievable or sustainable. The environmental fallout is already visible in cities, it is causing reduced visibility in daylight. One cannot see clearly beyond a hundred yards in November in Dilli. There is a grey haze over the city, more visible in the early part of the day through the aeroplane window, and the grey haze is even more evident on the ground.

The urbanites do not all have a small family size. I know of educated urban Muslims who have 4 children. The village Muslims are said to have even more children.

A demand for a population control Bill has been drafted in the Indian Parliament in 2018.

If the bill gets passed in the Indian Parliament, the two-child policy will be introduced in the country. This would be a good initial step to control population growth in India. The success would be in the visibility and implementation of the policy. Many of the laws in India stay sedentary in the Statute Books, and lack effective implementation. The ‘Hum do humare do’ message needs to be made visible in Schools, Colleges, public places and generally in the country.

Dr Sudha Vashisht

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